Risk Table R1–R18

This table maps eighteen risk categories to the TFP band system. For each risk, the table specifies the primary driving variables (P, ΔV, σ, Lr), the band at which contractual response becomes mandatory, and the minimum clause logic to include. Sector-specific calibration is required — the thresholds shown are framework defaults.

// Variable key

// R1–R18 Risk table

Code	Risk category	Primary variables	Activation band	Minimum clause response
Cluster I — Environmental & Ecological
R01	Climate stress / biophysical threshold Breach or proximity to planetary boundary in the operation's sector domain	P · ΔV	Amber	Enhanced monitoring; climate stress annex; annual recalibration obligation
R02	Biodiversity corridor fragmentation Operation interrupts or degrades biological connectivity within or adjacent to the contract area	P · σ	Amber	Connectivity index monitoring; habitat offset escrow; independent ecological review at Red
R03	Hydrological regime alteration Measurable change in flow, sediment, or thermal regime affecting dependent ecosystems or communities	P · ΔV · Lr	Red	Hydrological monitoring plan; minimum flow guarantee clause; automatic curtailment trigger
R04	Cumulative territorial pressure Aggregate impact of multiple operations exceeds carrying capacity of territory or community	P · σ · Lr	Red	Systemic look-through clause; cumulative impact register; cross-operation coordination obligation
Cluster II — Supply Chain & Technology
R05	Supply chain concentration Dependency on single suppliers, routes, or geographic clusters beyond substitutability threshold	Lr · ΔV	Amber	Concentration index monitoring; diversification obligation at Amber; substitutability fund at Red
R06	Algorithmic decision lock-in Critical decisions delegated to AI systems with no contractual review mechanism or override path	Lr · σ	Amber	Mandatory human review checkpoints; algorithmic auditability clause; override procedure
R07	Technological path dependency Adoption of technology that creates irreversible switching costs or vendor lock-in affecting systemic options	Lr · P	Amber	Technology neutrality assessment; interoperability obligation; exit-path reserve fund
R08	Data sovereignty breach Contractual arrangement creates irreversible transfer of sensitive data to unaccountable systems or jurisdictions	Lr · σ	Red	Data sovereignty clause; right of erasure trigger; jurisdictional limitation annex
Cluster III — Institutional & Regulatory
R09	License condition backsliding Progressive relaxation or non-enforcement of environmental or social license conditions	P · ΔV	Amber	Condition compliance register; automatic regulator notification at Amber; contract suspension at Red
R10	Regulatory arbitrage Operation structured to exploit gaps between jurisdictions or between regulatory regimes	σ · P	Amber	Systemic compatibility obligation; anti-arbitrage clause; cross-jurisdictional disclosure
R11	Institutional oversight gap No body has effective capacity to monitor the operation's systemic effects in real time	σ · Lr	Red	Mandatory TCC engagement; third-party monitoring fund; public reporting obligation
R12	Jurisdictional gap Cross-border effects fall outside any single jurisdiction's enforcement capacity	σ · P	Red	Governing law / enforcement clause; multi-jurisdictional notification; MLCA-style coordination mechanism
Cluster IV — Financial & Structural
R13	Counterparty systemic coupling Default or distress of a single counterparty propagates through the system beyond contractual containment	ΔV · Lr	Red	Systemic exposure cap; circuit-breaker clause; contagion firewall annex
R14	Financial instrument illiquidity Reversibility instruments (escrow, guarantee, reserve) cannot be accessed or deployed in time to prevent harm	Lr · ΔV	Red	Liquidity floor clause; immediate-access guarantee; independent trustee; monthly Lr reporting
R15	Cumulative impact invisibility No mechanism exists to aggregate and report cumulative systemic effects across time or actors	σ · P	Amber	Cumulative impact register; cross-contract coordination obligation; annual systemic audit
Cluster V — Social & Cascade
R16	Social license deterioration Community consent erodes below threshold required for operational legitimacy and non-disruption	P · ΔV	Amber	Social license index monitoring; mandatory community engagement at Amber; operational pause at Red
R17	Recognition–action gap System recognises risk trajectory but produces no binding intervention while intervention would still be effective	P · ΔV · Lr	Red	Mandatory binding action clause at Amber; no-delay provision; automatic escalation to Black if action deferred
R18	Cascade activation risk Trigger in one domain or contract activates cascading effects across interconnected systems or contracts	ΔV · σ · Lr	Black	Cross-contract cascade monitoring; systemic circuit-breaker; mandatory network-level assessment before Black activation

// How to use this table

Calibration and clause integration

This table provides framework defaults. For each applicable risk category, practitioners must: (1) define sector-specific threshold values for each primary variable; (2) confirm or adjust the activation band based on sectoral calibration data; (3) draft clause language that operationalises the minimum response in the specific contractual context.

Multiple risk categories may apply simultaneously. When three or more categories from different clusters activate at Amber or above, initiate a compound trigger assessment (see PB-01, Phase 4).

For sectors with limited empirical baselines, σ (uncertainty) should increase the precaution level by one band until sufficient monitoring data is available.